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Cellulosic ethanol shortfall

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Cellulosic ethanol will miss 2007 energy act renewable fuels targets in 2015 and 2022, unless commercial breakthroughs come faster. That is according to US Energy Information Administration chief Guy Caruso. Caruso told the Senate energy committee, ethanol from non-edible plant material, versus corn, will fall short of targets mandated in the 2007 energy act, triggering EPA adjustments in the renewable fuel standard in 2016 and 2022. �Instead of 36 billion gallons in 2030, we are, in this outlook, assuming or projecting, 32-point-5�and the main reason for that shortfall is the assumptions on the ability of the cellulosic portion of that ESA requirement to be met.
But Caruso admits if breakthroughs in commercialization of cellulosic ethanol come faster, within a year or two, EIA�s forecast could change. Extending biofuels tax credits this year would also help. Still, Caruso says renewables is now the �fastest growing� part of the energy mix in his annual forecasts.
Caruso credits the renewable fuels and higher mileage standards, and appliance energy efficiencies in the energy act with reducing not just greenhouse gasses, but for the first time, EIA�s oil import forecast. �The net import share of total liquid supplied, including crude oil and refined products, is significantly impacted by ESA 2007, dropping from 60-percent in 2006 to 51-percent in 2022.� Or down by 2-point-4 million gallons per day, but EIA predicts oil prices not adjusted for inflation could still average 113 dollars a barrel in 2016, 185-dollars by 2030.


Written by Casey McConnell

March 14, 2008 at 7:23 pm

Posted in Bioenergy

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